Long Mang Baili (002601): Yunnan Xinli comprehensively resumes production of titanium industry expansion project to help growth

Long Mang Baili (002601): Yunnan Xinli comprehensively resumes production of titanium industry expansion project to help growth
Recent situation of the company On January 9, we participated in the resumption of the completion of Xinli Titanium Industry of Longman Baili Antiques and the intensive start-up ceremony of major projects in the titanium industry, and exchanged views with the company. Yunnan Xinli ushered in a full-scale resumption of production, and the titanium dioxide and sponge titanium expansion projects started construction.Since the acquisition of Xinli Titanium by Longman Baili in May 2019, the 8-crystal high-titanium slag production line and 1 sponge sponge titanium production line have been successfully resumed in 180 seconds, and the 6 chloride titanium dioxide production line has been improved.At the closing stage, the company expects to resume production by the end of January 2020.At the same time, Xinli Titanium Industry will start the construction of 16 targets / year high titanium slag, 20 targets / year chlorinated titanium dioxide and 3 indicators / sponge titanium project. The company is expected to invest a total of USD 5 billion.LiTitanium will become the world’s largest sponge titanium production base and the nation’s important chloride titanium dioxide production base. 20 Titanium Chloride Titanium Dioxide started to increase steadily, and the titanium chloride slag project progressed smoothly.At present, the first phase 10 of the company’s second-stage chlorinated titanium dioxide reached the production line and the production increased to 6000 tons / month. The second 10-line production line is in the commissioning stage. We expect that the gradual release of the second-phase chlorinated titanium dioxide capacity will helpCompany performance growth.50 Initial Panxi Titanium Concentrate Upgrading and Transformation Construction 30 Progressive construction of the titanium chloride slag project is progressing smoothly. The company is expected to start production at the end of 2020 and it is expected to reach production in 2021. We expect that the cost of titanium chloride titanium dioxide raw materials will be reduced after the project is put into operationEnhance the competition of chlorinated titanium dioxide. Demand for titanium dioxide is expected to improve, and the company’s market share will continue to increase.The real estate team of CICC is expected to increase the real physical completed area of houses across the country by 9% by 2020, which will increase domestic demand for titanium dioxide; exports of titanium dioxide will continue to improve, and monthly exports of titanium dioxide will increase by 6 on January 11, 2019.9% to 90%.3 Initially, we expect that the export volume 南京夜网 of titanium dioxide will exceed 100 inches by 2020.On the supply side, according to our statistics, in 2020, the titanium dioxide industry will mainly increase its output and concentrate on leading enterprises. We expect that the market share and speaking power of leading enterprises will be further enhanced. It is recommended to keep the profit forecast for 2019 unchanged. Taking into account the resumption of production of Xinli Titanium Industry and chloride titanium dioxide, the profit forecast for 2020 is raised by 3% to 32 trillion. The profit forecast for 2021 is 3.7 billion yuan.At present, the company is in line with the corresponding P / E ratio of 2020/21.8/9.4x. Considering the evaluation switch and better company growth, we raise our target price by 17.6% to 20 yuan, corresponding to 17% growth space and 13 / 11x P / E ratio in 2020/21, maintain outperform industry rating. Risks Titanium dioxide prices have dropped, and chlorinated titanium dioxide has started operations lower than expected.

Yongxing Materials (002756): Consolidated mining rights report layout layout of lithium carbonate complete industry chain

Yongxing Materials (002756): Consolidated mining rights report layout layout of lithium carbonate complete industry chain

The event company announced that its holding subsidiaries Yongxing New Energy, Huaqiao Yongtuo, Yichun Mining and Huaqiao Mining special issue “Agreement on Yifeng County Huaqiao Yongtuo Mining Co., Ltd.’s equity change and investment increase”.

After the equity change and increased investment, Huaqiao Mining and the porcelain stone mining rights it holds in Baishi Mining Area will be within the scope of the company’s consolidated statement.

The opinion guarantees the upstream raw materials of the lithium carbonate project and opens the last link of the industrial chain.

The forthcoming Huaqiao Mining and the porcelain mining rights held in Baishi Mining Area will be within the scope of the company’s consolidated statement. In the future, it will effectively guarantee the company’s upstream raw materials for the battery-level lithium carbonate project that has been put into trial operation.

According to the announcement, as of April 2019, the Huashan 天津夜网 porcelain stone ore body gradually identified the controlled intrinsic economic resources (332) + the triggered intrinsic economic resources (333) and the amount of ore was 4507 variables, of which 332The amount of ore is 3099 additives, and the amount of 333 types of ore is 1408 additives.

At this point, the company has completed the layout of the complete new energy lithium battery industry chain from the mining of mineral resources to the production of brine to the production of battery-grade lithium carbonate, and the cost advantage will change.

Lithium carbonate project is expected to contribute to profit, and it is estimated that there is room for improvement.

The company’s first-phase annual production of 1 entered the battery-grade lithium carbonate project has been put into production. Considering the company’s research and development technology strength and cost advantages brought by its own minerals, the project’s future profitability is expected, and it is expected to contribute profits in 2020.

Since 2017, the company has been involved in the dual main business of lithium battery, and subject to the impact of the outlook on the lithium carbonate industry, the company is expected to continue to be under pressure.

We believe that once the project achieves profitability, the suppression of estimation factors is expected to be eliminated, and the bottom of the price of lithium carbonate will be stabilized, which will contribute to the profitability elasticity in the future, and it is estimated that there is room for improvement.

The leading segments are growing steadily, with low resistance and high dividends, and the main business has an expected margin of safety.

The downstream of the company faces high-end manufacturing industries such as petrochemical, aerospace, marine, military, nuclear power, etc., with high barriers and high added value, and the second largest domestic market share in the field of stainless steel rods and wires.

At the same time, the company has excellent management, with a debt ratio of 25% and an ROE of 10%. The net profit in the five years of listing has doubled.

At the same time, the last two years have continued to have high dividends, with an average yield of 5.


Earnings forecast and investment recommendations The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent of 4, respectively, in 2019-2021.

3.7 billion, 5.

2.1 billion, 6.

6.9 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 13.

4 times, 11.

3 times, 8.

8 times.

Maintain target price of 21.

9 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks suggest that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fall; there is a downside risk to macro demand.

Nanwei Medical (688029): Deeply cultivating endoscopic diagnosis and treatment equipment to advance tumor ablation and EOCT multi-platform

Nanwei Medical (688029): Deeply cultivating endoscopic diagnosis and treatment equipment to advance tumor ablation and EOCT multi-platform

Leader in the field of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment, and three major technology platforms with concentric and diverse layout. Since its establishment, the company has been deeply involved in the field of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment equipment, and has gradually formed six product lines, a variety of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment product lines; through extension mergers and acquisitions + internalInnovate, attack the field of tumor ablation and EOCT technology platform, and form three major technology platforms of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment, tumor ablation and EOCT around the minimally invasive field.

The company is in a period of rapid growth. From 2016 to 2018, the company’s main product sales increased rapidly, with total operating income from 20164.

100 million increase to September 2018.

About 200 million, the compound annual growth rate is close to 50%.

The scope of the country’s internal mirror diagnosis and treatment market is broad, supporting the company’s growth. The soil is fertile and the digestive system diseases are gradually increasing. Gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and other digestive system cancers rank among the leading rates of various types of cancer. The prevalence of gallstone disease, cholecystitis and pneumoniaIt is on the rise, pushing up the basic needs of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment as an effective means for early screening and diagnosis of digestive diseases; the progress rate of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment in our country has significantly exceeded the gradual expansion, and the scope of the endoscopic diagnosis and treatment market is broad, supporting the company’s fertile soil.

The company’s endoscopic diagnostic equipment product line contributed the company’s main subsidiary revenue, which accounted for 88.

6% is also the main source of short-term growth; from 2016 to 2018, the operating income of the endoscopic diagnostic and treatment device product line increased from 3.

2.1 billion to 8.

1.1 billion, with an average annual or compound growth rate of about 60%. The sales of the three major product lines of hemostasis and closure, biopsy and expansion account for about 84.


Tumor ablation and EOCT are expected to become the company’s new growth point. The company’s microwave ablation products are mainly used for liver cancer treatment. Cancer is a country with a high incidence of liver cancer. Liver cancer ranked fourth in the incidence of cancer in 2014, and ranked second in the death rate., Tumor ablation is a primary tumor that cannot be performed, especially liver parenchymal tumors, or patients who are not suitable for open surgery due to age / physical 北京养生会所 reasons.

The company’s tumor ablation products account for nearly 10% of the domestic thermal ablation market.

ECOT is an innovative product of the company’s strategic layout with cutting-edge technology standards, pioneering a brand-new “non-invasive optical biopsy” technology. At the end of 2016, it was approved by the US FDA.The green channel for the approval of innovative medical devices by the FDA is expected to become an important growth point for the company’s performance in the future.

Earnings forecasts and estimates temporarily do not take into account the sales revenue and profit contribution of the subsequent listing of EOCT products. We forecast that the company’s revenue scale will be 12 in 2019-2021.



11 trillion, respectively increased by 31.

9% / 29.

4% / 27.

8%; net profit attributable to mothers is 2.



7.2 billion, an increase of 43 in ten years.

0% / 31.

5% / 30.

4%; total issued share capital1.

3.3 billion shares are the reference share capital, and the company’s full diluted earnings (EPS) will be 2 in 2019-2021.



55 yuan.

The company belongs to the medical device fine molecule industry, and the current medical device (SW) industry as a whole is PE (TTM) 42.

6 times (as of July 17), most of the company’s products are consumable-type devices, we choose A-share comparable companies Dabo Medical, Jianfan Bio and Kellett for reference.

Based on the industry’s overall and comparable company estimates, considering that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will increase at a compound annual growth rate of more than 30% in the next three years, a 40-time PE estimate for 2019 is given, with a target price of 82.

8 yuan.

Risks indicate that the competition in the industry is intensifying, and the development of new products such as EOCT is less than expected, and the risk of product price reductions.

Torch Electronics (603678): The growth of military electronics has significantly reduced the losses of new materials many times

Torch Electronics (603678): The growth of military electronics has significantly reduced the losses of new materials many times

The net profit attributable to mothers increased by 21 in 19H1.

22%, the growth in the first half of the performance is in line with expectations The company released the 2019 semi-annual report, the company’s revenue in 2019H110.

61 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

7%, net profit attributable to mother is 2.

13 ppm, an increase of 21 per year.

22%, performance 杭州桑拿 growth in line with expectations.

As the core supplier of military MLCC, the company is actively deploying the two-way capacitor and special ceramic materials business, and its future performance will continue to increase.

We expect the company’s EPS to be zero in 2019-2021.



35 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Military electronics business revenues increase by 49 per year.

6%, self-produced components business continued to improve 2019H1 company’s self-produced business to achieve sales revenue3.

0.94 million yuan, of which sales of military products2.

710,000 yuan, an increase of 49.

59%; self-produced sales revenue of civilian products1.

23 ppm, an increase of 19 per year.


Guangzhou Tianji 2019H1 acquired in April 2018 achieved revenue of 3165.

10,000 yuan, net profit 1214.

60,000 yuan, the first half of the net profit is close to the 2018 consolidated profit.

2019H1 company’s tungsten capacitor business achieved sales revenue of 2385.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.

45%, gross margin 50.

01%, an increase of 4 a year.

49pct, sales and profits of tungsten capacitors have further increased.

We believe that after the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan and the gradual elimination of the effects of the military reform, the military electronics business is expected to usher in a period of sustained high-speed growth.

The new materials business has reduced losses by nearly half, and it is expected to significantly increase the company’s competitiveness and profitability in the future.

580,000 yuan, an increase of 19 every year.

77%, the three companies engaged in new materials business Liya New Materials, Liya Tetao, Liya Chemical replaced 1.34 million yuan, 1.65 million yuan, 4.84 million yuan, respectively, reducing losses 626 times in total.

270,000 yuan.

The company started to deploy the industrialization of CASAS-300 materials in 2014, and started construction of the industrialization project of CASAS-300 in 2016, and realized profitability in 2018. The business is currently progressing smoothly.

This material is expensive. According to the company’s announced price of about 50,000 to 6 million / kg, the continuous growth of downstream demand in the future and the gradual release of production capacity will significantly enhance the company’s competitiveness and profitability.

The decline in the gross profit margin of the trading business, which is expected to achieve revenue in 2019H1’s trading business6.

62 ppm, an increase of 0 per year.

81%, gross profit margin 18.

15% twice a year.

42 points.In 2018, the company’s trade sector business was affected by the shortage of supplementary agent lines and the ceramic capacitor market. The gross profit margin of trading products increased. In 2019, the shortage of ceramic capacitors eased. The product price and gross profit margin generally began to decrease. We believe that the company’s agencyThe business gross margin growth rate is still within 深圳桑拿网 expectations.

Ceramic capacitors and ceramics new materials high-quality civilian enterprises, maintain the “buy” rating company in the first half of the new material business substantially reduced losses, military electronics business grew significantly, we believe that the transition to new materials and military electronics business usher in a high growth period, 2020The performance of -2021 is expected to continue to grow at a high speed. Therefore, the profit forecast for 2020-2021 is raised. It is estimated that Torch Electronics’ operating income for 2019-2021 will be 24.



7.9 billion (number from 19-21 years ago 24.



5.7 billion), net profit attributable to mothers was 4.



1.3 billion (19-21 years ago) 4.



33 ppm), the corresponding EPS is 0.



35 yuan.

Comparable companies’ average P / E in 2019 is estimated to be 34.

42, we give Torch Electronics 34-34 in 2019.

5x P / E estimates with a target price range of 30.


46 yuan / share.

Maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: Expenditure on military spending and military-civilian integration policies are expected; the promotion of new materials fails to meet expectations.

US researchers: loneliness threatens public health or even obesity

US researchers: loneliness threatens public health or even obesity
Researchers at Brigham Young University released a report at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association, saying that loneliness and social isolation may be more harmful to public health than obesity, and the impact is still increasing.  Psychology 苏州夜网论坛 professor Juliana Holt-Leinstead led the research team to collect, collate, and analyze many previous related studies, and presented two sets of data in the report.The first set of data is based on 148 studies involving 300,000 subjects, showing that more social interaction is related to a 50% reduction in the risk of early death.The second set of data is based on 70 studies involving more than 3.4 million people. The results show that social isolation, loneliness, or living alone have a significant impact on premature death, with an impact greater than or equal to obesity.  US Daily Science website quoted Holt-Leinstead as saying that there is sufficient evidence that social isolation and loneliness significantly increase the risk of premature death. As the aging population increases, the impact of loneliness on public health will only increaseIn fact, many countries in the world are facing lonely epidemics.  The latest US census results show that more than a quarter of the US population lives alone, and more than half are unmarried or divorced.Compared with the results of the previous census, the marriage rate and the number of children per household have decreased.Holt-Leinstead said: These trends show that Americans are reducing social interaction and becoming more lonely.(Huang Min)[Xinhua News Agency Microblog]Original title: American researchers: loneliness harms public health or even obesity

Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Continued R & D + Industry Integration to Survive the Jedi

Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Continued R & D + Industry Integration to Survive the Jedi

Event: The company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report, and the company achieved revenue of 22 in 2018.

4.6 billion, an increase of 10 in ten years.

65%, net profit 4.

05 ppm, an increase of ten years.

91%; revenue in the first quarter of 20194.

56 ppm, a decrease of 15 per year.

73%, with a net profit of 3967.

510,000 yuan, down 55 every year.


The company predicts that the decline in the proportion of net profit in the first half of 2019 may exceed 50%.

Opinion: Cycles that cannot be budgeted, and memory chip price reductions are a drag on performance.

Affected by factors such as weak demand and lower memory chip prices, the company’s revenue growth in 2018 has gradually declined, with Q1-Q4 being 19 respectively.

71%, 16.

18%, 6.

26%, 2.

35%; net profit growth rate changed from positive to negative, Q1-Q4 were 28.

55%, 32.

54%, -17.

33%, -35.


2019Q1 revenue for ten years -15.

73%, net profit for ten years -55.


The company predicts that the decline in the proportion of net profit in the first half of 2019 may exceed 50%, including: 1.

In order to maintain market competitiveness, the company continues to increase R & D investment by developing new products; 2.

2. Add extra incentives to increase the cost; 3.

The rate of cost decline is slower than the rate of price decline, resulting in a decline in gross profit margin; 4.

4. Trade frictions lead to at least a possible reduction in income and a decrease in profits; 5.

The fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate affects the company’s exchange losses.

Taiwan Wanghong’s 2019Q1 revenue, which is similar to the company’s business, continues to be -33%, and net profit is -92%. The gross profit margin has gradually decreased by 17pct.

Continue to increase investment 重庆耍耍网 in research and development, maintaining a high gross profit margin.

The company invested in R & D in 2018 2.

3 billion, an annual increase of 37.

67%; R & D investment in the first quarter of 2019 was 0.

64 ppm, an increase of 62 in ten years.


The company’s gross profit margin for 2019Q1 was 38.

48%, ten years +0.24pct, ring than +0.

76 points.

Through continuous high R & D investment, the company continuously carries out technological upgrades and new product development, and enriches the company’s product line to maintain a high level of gross profit.

The company’s full range of GD25 SPI NOR flash memory products has completed AEC-Q100 certification, and is currently the only nationwide general automotive flash memory product. The MCU product portfolio has been further expanded, and new products 南宁桑拿 have been developed for high performance, miniaturization, and IoT applications.

In terms of memory chips, the company launched the smallest package in developing countries for the Internet of Things, wearables and consumer products1.

5 mm x 1.

5mm USON8 low-power wide-voltage product line; launched the first domestic 8-channel SPI product that complies with JEDEC specifications for applications with high performance requirements; introduced 256Mb, 512Mb, etc.Products; and has certified the entire GD25 series according to the AEC-Q100 standard, and is currently the only nationally-produced car flash memory product.

In addition, the company’s high-reliability 38nm SLC process products have been in mass production.

In terms of MCUs, the company develops multiple new products for advanced, specific and IoT applications, further expanding the MCU product portfolio.

Continue to promote industrial integration and expand strategic layout.

The company continued to promote the 12-inch micron wafer research and development project with the Hefei Production and Investment Cooperative, and agreed to invest 300 million yuan in convertible debt.

The company’s proposed acquisition of Siliwei has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and it is actively deploying human-computer interaction technology in the field of Internet of Things.

The company and Rambus, a well-known chip designer in the United States, have strategically cooperated to develop the commercialization of RRAM technology, further expanding the layout of the new storage market.

Earnings forecasts and investment-rated memory chips have continued to reduce prices since the beginning of 2018. The company predicts that the decline in the proportion of net profit in the first half of 2019 may exceed 50%.

Considering the easing of Sino-U.S. Trade frictions and the gradual recovery of downstream demand and the gradual destocking of the industry, we expect the company’s memory chip prices to reach 2019 and stabilize in the second half of the year. At the same time, taking into account the company’s continuous technology upgrades and the development of new products, under 2019The company’s profitability seeks improvement in one and a half years.

Regardless of the consolidation, we lower the company’s EPS forecasts for 2019 and 2020 to 1.

37, 1.

82 (last time was 3.

27, 4.

64 yuan), plus EPS forecast for 2021 is 2.

35 yuan, the current budget compared to PE is 60, 46, 35 times, downgrade the company rating to “overweight” level.

Risk warning: the risk of failure to acquire Sili Micro, the risk of continued price reduction of memory chips, and the development of new products is less than expected.

Wanrun Co. (002643) Company Comments: Interim Report Performance Steady Growth Due to Increased Internal Demand and Exchange Gains

Wanrun Co. (002643) Company Comments: Interim Report Performance Steady Growth Due to Increased Internal Demand and Exchange Gains

The steady growth of the interim report results is in line with expectations. The company issued a 2019 interim report forecast, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.

9.3 billion -2.

51 ppm, a year-on-year growth of 0-30%, performance growth in line with market expectations.

Reasons for performance growth: downstream demand growth, especially the increase in internal environmental protection material demand; RMB depreciation in the second quarter of 2019, the company’s exports accounted for nearly 80%, and the US dollar-based pricing, RMB depreciation brings considerable exchange gains, we expectForeign exchange earnings in the second quarter exceeded 10 million yuan.

The issuance of convertible bonds was terminated, but the built-in environmental protection materials project continued to advance in an orderly manner. Focusing on convertible bonds, it has been shown that the capital market environment has changed in order to fully protect the interests of shareholders, especially small and medium shareholders. The company comprehensively considers capital market conditions and financing opportunitiesFactors, decided to terminate the issuance of convertible bonds and withdraw the application documents.

We believe that the current price corresponds to the company’s 2019 PE estimate of only 17 times. At this time, the issuance of convertible bonds and excessive dilution of the company’s EPS after subsequent conversions will result in the company’s termination of the issue of convertible bonds in accordance with shareholders’ equity.

In addition, the termination of the issuance of convertible bonds will not affect the implementation of the company’s internal environmental protection material projects. The company will continue to promote the involvement of environmental protection material projects through self-raised funds.

The implementation of National VI for diesel vehicles, the growth of internal demand is worth looking forward to the implementation of National VI for diesel 杭州夜生活网 vehicles will significantly increase the demand for internal environmentally friendly materials. After full implementation in 2021, it is expected that the annual domestic demand will increase by more than one.

Backed by Johnson Matthey, the company is expected to fully benefit from the industry’s growth dividend.

In addition, the increase in diesel emission standards in emerging countries such as India and Brazil will also drive demand.

The company’s existing polycarbonate production capacity is 3350 tons, 2,500 tons are under construction, and it will continue to expand production by 7,000 tons.

With the successive construction and production of a series of environmentally-friendly materials projects, the company will become a high-end series of environmentally-friendly materials producers in the world in terms of technology and sales.

The OLED business enters the period of accelerated release of performance. The OLED business maintains a leading position in China. Its nine-mesh chemical is a leading supplier of domestic intermediates and monomers. In March Optoelectronics, there is a volume of finished materials certification for downstream customers.Earnings are rising rapidly and profitability is expected.

We believe that the OLED business is one of the most important businesses the company reserves after the power station business.

The company’s 2019Q1 minority shareholders ‘profit and loss was 563 million. Since March Optoelectronics is still in the heavy volume verification stage, the minority shareholders’ profit and loss are mainly contributed by Jiumu Chemical. Therefore, we believe that Jiumu Chemical’s 2019Q1 net profit has exceeded 10 million and the net profit marginImproved and continue to improve (Jinmu Chemical’s revenue in 20182.

360,000 yuan, net profit margin 23.19 million yuan, net profit margin 9.


The chemical growth in September exceeded expectations, and the volume of finished photovoltaic materials in the following three months, the company’s OLED business will enter a period of accelerated performance release.

Earnings forecast and investment advice: We expect the company’s net profit attributable to its parent to be 5 in 2019-2020.


400 million, the current price corresponds to 17 times PE in 2019, maintain BUY rating.

Risk warning: demand for environmentally friendly materials exceeds expectations, growth of OLED materials exceeds expectations, and liquid crystal demand exceeds expectations.

Xinyangfeng (000902): an underrated leader in agricultural consumer goods!

Xinyangfeng (000902): an underrated leader in agricultural consumer goods!

Xinyangfeng’s finances: stable profitable growth, abundant cash flow, healthy assets and liabilities.

1) Growth: After removing the influence of adverse policy factors such as the government’s increasing levy on the compound fertilizer industry in 2016, the company has maintained a revenue growth of about 10% and a profit growth of about 20% for the past six years.
From the perspective of sales volume, since 2012, the company’s sales volume has continued to increase until the downturn in the industry since 2016, with an average growth rate of three years still reaching 8.


2) Profitability: The company’s average ROE has been as high as 16% since 2014; the company’s net interest rate has averaged 8 in the three years and one quarter since 2016.

46%, higher than Kim Jong Tai (4.

38%), Stanley (4.

77%) and Yuntu Holdings (1.


3) Cash flow and liabilities: The net cash flow generated by the company’s operating activities is always positive, and the total net cash flow from operating activities during the five-year period from 2014 to 2018 is as high as 31.

4.7 billion, with an annual average of 6.

300 million; due to long-term high profit and high net operating cash inflow, the company’s debt ratio has been repeated, and the asset-liability ratio in the first quarter of 2019 was only 23.


Core competitiveness: Why does the company have such excellent financial performance?

Outstanding cost advantage + channel marketing effort!

1) Cost advantage is outstanding.

The company has a cost advantage of about 200 yuan / ton because of: 1) a long industrial chain and upstream monoammonium phosphate production capacity; 2) it has the right to import potash fertilizer and can import potash fertilizer at a low price; 3) the location is reasonable and it hasConvenient transportation such as waterways and railway lines, reducing logistics costs; 4) Having advanced and perfect production technology and supporting facilities, further reducing the company’s costs.

2) Marketing channels are working hard to help sales volume and market share continue to increase.

Relying on cost advantages, the company can give more incentives to dealers and more cost-effective products to end consumers, so that it can continue to increase sales during a downturn in the market environment. In recent years, the company has continuously obtained high-quality channelsResources. In 2018, the number of the company’s first-level dealers reached 4,800, an increase of 300 a year, which constitutes an important factor for the company’s sales growth and continuous increase in market share, and has contributed to the excellent sales flexibility when the industry’s prosperity returned.

3) Product upgrades, the company’s product structure continues to be optimized.

The company has made great efforts in research and development, products, brands, channels, and services to vigorously develop new compound fertilizers.

The company’s new compound fertilizer sales increased rapidly, and the proportion of high-profit new fertilizer continued to increase, which will help the company’s overall gross profit and net profit rate continue to rise.

The industry competition pattern has improved, and the “triphosphate control” and the recovery of agricultural product prices have helped the company’s performance growth!

1) In 2019, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the “Implementation Plan for the Investigation and Rectification of the” Three Phosphorus “on the Yangtze River,” which strengthened the “Three Phosphorus” special investigation and rectification action involving phosphate mines, phosphate fertilizers, and phosphorus-containing pesticide manufacturing, including phosphate chemical enterprises and phosphogypsum depotIt is expected that the supply of monoammonium phosphate will shrink significantly, the advantages of core resources will be further highlighted, and the company’s operating moat will be consolidated, and the company’s cost advantage will be more prominent!

2) The domestic agricultural product price is expected to recover at the bottom, and the rise of corn is obvious, which will help the bottom of the compound fertilizer industry to recover.

“Buy” rating: It is expected that the company’s revenue will be 110-2019.



2.7 billion, an increase of 9.

98% / 9.

21% / 12.

27%, net profit attributable to mother is 9.



27 ppm, the corresponding EPS is 0.


09 yuan, an increase of 20 per year.
93% / 20.

11% / 20.

01%. Considering the stable growth of the company’s performance and the moat of the performance, we give the company 20 times PE, and the target price for the 2019 performance is 15.

2 yuan.

Risk reminders: 1. Fluctuations in prices of agricultural products and raw materials; 2. Limitations of cost estimation; 3. Intensified competition.

Xiaoxiong Electric (002959): Performance Exceeds Expectation, Differentiated Rookie Growth Expected

Xiaoxiong Electric (002959): Performance Exceeds Expectation, Differentiated Rookie Growth Can Be Expected

Recently, the company disclosed the results report for 2019: revenue and net profit attributable to mothers were 26.

9 billion, 2.

600 million, previously +31.

9%, +40.

1%; corresponding to 2019Q4: income and net profit attributable to mothers are 9 respectively.

700 million, 0.

900 million, previously +34.

4%, +39.

4%; revenue performance was slightly better than expected.

First, the expansion of products and channels contributed to the continued high income growth The company’s income continued to grow rapidly.

From the quarterly data, 2019Q1-2019Q4 revenue was 6 respectively.

3 billion, 5.

6 billion, 5.

3 billion, 9.

700 million, previously + 34%, 24%, 33%, 34%.

Revenue growth is mainly driven by two aspects: 1) implementation of multi-category development strategy and continuous development of new products; 杭州桑拿网 2) continuous development and improvement of sales channels.

In terms of product expansion: its own small kitchen appliances continue to update and iterate, and its growth is stable; at the same time, it expands categories in the field of infants and children and personal care to achieve rapid growth.

The company’s baby products include food supplements, milk warmers, etc .; personal care includes humidifiers, dryers, electric fans, vacuum cleaners, etc., among which humidifiers have the largest market share in Suning.

The company has a differentiated positioning, high-quality creativity and fast market response. It has nearly 100 new products listed each year, overlapping the high prosperity of the small home appliance and fine-molecule industry. Many categories will go hand in hand in the future, and high-speed growth can be expected.

In terms of channel expansion: e-commerce channels with a relatively high revenue share continue to sink to the low-end market. At the same time, based on the two major customers of JD.com and Tmall, they are expanding new platforms such as social e-commerce, live e-commerce, etc .;Invest in offline channel construction, implement omnichannel operations, and promote online and offline integration.

Second, profitability improved The company’s net profit margin improved.

According to the performance report, the company’s net profit margin in 2019 is about 9.

7%, +0 per year.

6pct; 2019Q4 company net profit is about 9.

5% each time +0.

3 points.

The expected increase in net profit margin is mainly due to the decline in raw material prices.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, the prices of plastics and corrugated paper have dropped by more than 10% compared to last year, and the prices of other raw materials such as hardware products and electronic devices have changed little.

With reference to the company’s procurement of raw materials in 2018, the purchase of plastics and corrugated paper accounted for about 25% of the purchase of raw materials.

The decline in plastic and corrugated paper prices is expected to contribute to the company’s profit margin.

Third, earnings forecast In the short term, we believe that the company will have limited impact from the new crown epidemic.

The main reason is that the company’s e-commerce channels account for a relatively high proportion, in line with the trend of consumers’ online purchases during the epidemic, and at the same time, multiple categories such as electric heating lunch boxes have grown rapidly with increasing consumer health and epidemic awareness.

In the long run, the company is expected to maintain rapid growth through the company’s continued development of new high-boom categories such as kitchens, babies, and small home appliances, with differentiated advantages to increase the share of old categories, and the continued expansion of emerging channels such as social e-commerce.

Due to the rapid expansion of the company’s products and channels, combined with the 2019 performance report, we expect the net profit in 2019-2021 to be 2.

60 billion, 3.

27 billion, 3.

9.7 billion, previously + 40%, 26%, 22%, currently expected to correspond to PE32x, 25x, 21x; maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: New products and channel expansion are less than expected, industry competition deteriorates, and raw material costs rise

China National Travel Service (601888) released comment: Faster profit growth in the first half

China National Travel Service (601888) released comment: Faster profit growth in the first half

In the first half of 19, non-net profit increased by 30 each year.

9%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 28 in the second quarter.

2% of the companies released an interim results report. 1) In terms of revenue growth, the first half of 19 achieved revenue of 243.

4 percent, an increase of 15 per year.

5%, of which Q2 single-quarter revenue was 106.

500 million, down 12 a year.

9%, mainly affected by the transfer of travel agency business and the period between Shanghai and Shanghai on the consolidation date. We estimate that the revenue growth of tax-free business in the first half of the year under comparable caliber will increase by approximately 35%, of which tax-free revenue in the second quarter alone will increase by approximately 28%.

The company’s tax-exempt business has a good growth momentum.

2) In terms of net profit growth, net profit attributable to mothers and non-net profit after deductions in the first half of 19 were 32.

8 and 25.

0 billion, with an annual increase of 70.

9% and 30.


Among them, Q2 single-quarter net profit attributable to mother 9.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 28 in ten years.

2%, deducting non-net profit increased by 20.

9%, we estimate that the non-net profit of Q2 in a single quarter of comparable caliber will increase continuously or reach 33%, mainly due to the tax exemption of Shanghai and Capital Airport, and the continuous and rapid increase of tax exemption for outlying islands. Therefore, it may also come from the decline in financial expenses (2(Quarterly) Financial expenses affected by exchange rate factors increased, obviously exceeding 81.4 million yuan), and Hong Kong’s airport business reduced losses (the same period last year or more than US $ 100 million), and Guangzhou Airport’s duty-free business increased.

Outlying island duty-free: Sanya duty-free shops achieved tax exemption of nearly 5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of over 20%. According to Haikou Customs data, Sanya Haitang Bay sold duty-free goods in the first half of 201949.

98 megabytes, a year-on-year growth of about 24%. The steady growth of Sanya store revenue has driven the company’s profit to continue to improve.

According to Haikou Customs data, the cumulative consumption of duty-free shops in Hainan outlying islands in Q1 2019 and the first half of 2019 reached 42 respectively.

4 and 65.

8.2 billion, an increase of 29 each year.

24% and 26.

56%, of which the number of shoppers increased by 20 in ten years.

36% and 15.

98%, the combination of customer unit price and shopping trips has grown significantly. In the future, the expansion of Haikou’s duty-free stores will be transformed. The effect of the island’s tax-free policy will continue to be released, driving the company’s long-term steady growth of profits.

The revenue growth in the first half of the year was relatively fast, and the long-term growth of the tax-exempt leader was expected. The company maintained a “buy” rating. The revenue and net profit of the tax-free business in the first half of the year achieved rapid growth. The tax-free business of airports and outlying islands showed good growth.Points include 1) According to the company’s official website, the Beijing internal store has opened in May. In June, the General Administration of Customs agreed to resume the establishment of a duty-free store in Shanghai. The company is expected to open within the year.Space; 2) Sanya duty-free shop profit continued to grow, Haikou duty-free shop expanded, the company continued to benefit from the long-term growth of the island’s tax-free business; 3) Airport tax-free business expansion, tax-free channels diversification brought China ‘s global expansion in duty-free expansion, driving the company ‘s gross profit margin to continue to rise.

We are optimistic about the company’s rapid growth in tax exemption, long-term benefits and upgrading of residents’ consumption under the background of policy-guided consumption return. It is expected that the company’s EPS will be 2 in 19-21.

36, 2.

57 and 3.

13元/股,15年以来公司市盈率估计区间为25至46倍,目前中国免税行业发展前景向好,行业集中度快速提升,中免公司在全球免税行业市场规模不断增长,2019年 年公司合并The duty-free shop in the city opened. Considering the company’s allocation during the strategic transformation period and the company’s international tax allowance, it was given a P / E estimate of 40 times in 19 years, which is equivalent to a reasonable value of 94.

5 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: Macroeconomic downturn affects residents ‘tax-free shopping demand. The related policies of the tax-free industry are less than expected. The profits of Sanya and Haikou duty-free shops are lower than expected.