China National Travel Service (601888) released comment: Faster profit growth in the first half
In the first half of 19, non-net profit increased by 30 each year.
9%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 28 in the second quarter.
2% of the companies released an interim results report. 1) In terms of revenue growth, the first half of 19 achieved revenue of 243.
4 percent, an increase of 15 per year.
5%, of which Q2 single-quarter revenue was 106.
500 million, down 12 a year.
9%, mainly affected by the transfer of travel agency business and the period between Shanghai and Shanghai on the consolidation date. We estimate that the revenue growth of tax-free business in the first half of the year under comparable caliber will increase by approximately 35%, of which tax-free revenue in the second quarter alone will increase by approximately 28%.
The company’s tax-exempt business has a good growth momentum.
2) In terms of net profit growth, net profit attributable to mothers and non-net profit after deductions in the first half of 19 were 32.
8 and 25.
0 billion, with an annual increase of 70.
9% and 30.
Among them, Q2 single-quarter net profit attributable to mother 9.
70,000 yuan, an increase of 28 in ten years.
2%, deducting non-net profit increased by 20.
9%, we estimate that the non-net profit of Q2 in a single quarter of comparable caliber will increase continuously or reach 33%, mainly due to the tax exemption of Shanghai and Capital Airport, and the continuous and rapid increase of tax exemption for outlying islands. Therefore, it may also come from the decline in financial expenses (2(Quarterly) Financial expenses affected by exchange rate factors increased, obviously exceeding 81.4 million yuan), and Hong Kong’s airport business reduced losses (the same period last year or more than US $ 100 million), and Guangzhou Airport’s duty-free business increased.
Outlying island duty-free: Sanya duty-free shops achieved tax exemption of nearly 5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of over 20%. According to Haikou Customs data, Sanya Haitang Bay sold duty-free goods in the first half of 201949.
98 megabytes, a year-on-year growth of about 24%. The steady growth of Sanya store revenue has driven the company’s profit to continue to improve.
According to Haikou Customs data, the cumulative consumption of duty-free shops in Hainan outlying islands in Q1 2019 and the first half of 2019 reached 42 respectively.
4 and 65.
8.2 billion, an increase of 29 each year.
24% and 26.
56%, of which the number of shoppers increased by 20 in ten years.
36% and 15.
98%, the combination of customer unit price and shopping trips has grown significantly. In the future, the expansion of Haikou’s duty-free stores will be transformed. The effect of the island’s tax-free policy will continue to be released, driving the company’s long-term steady growth of profits.
The revenue growth in the first half of the year was relatively fast, and the long-term growth of the tax-exempt leader was expected. The company maintained a “buy” rating. The revenue and net profit of the tax-free business in the first half of the year achieved rapid growth. The tax-free business of airports and outlying islands showed good growth.Points include 1) According to the company’s official website, the Beijing internal store has opened in May. In June, the General Administration of Customs agreed to resume the establishment of a duty-free store in Shanghai. The company is expected to open within the year.Space; 2) Sanya duty-free shop profit continued to grow, Haikou duty-free shop expanded, the company continued to benefit from the long-term growth of the island’s tax-free business; 3) Airport tax-free business expansion, tax-free channels diversification brought China ‘s global expansion in duty-free expansion, driving the company ‘s gross profit margin to continue to rise.
We are optimistic about the company’s rapid growth in tax exemption, long-term benefits and upgrading of residents’ consumption under the background of policy-guided consumption return. It is expected that the company’s EPS will be 2 in 19-21.
57 and 3.
13元/股，15年以来公司市盈率估计区间为25至46倍，目前中国免税行业发展前景向好，行业集中度快速提升，中免公司在全球免税行业市场规模不断增长，2019年 年公司合并The duty-free shop in the city opened. Considering the company’s allocation during the strategic transformation period and the company’s international tax allowance, it was given a P / E estimate of 40 times in 19 years, which is equivalent to a reasonable value of 94.
5 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: Macroeconomic downturn affects residents ‘tax-free shopping demand. The related policies of the tax-free industry are less than expected. The profits of Sanya and Haikou duty-free shops are lower than expected.