Midea Group (000333) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Q4 Fundamentals Bottom Set to Regain Growth in 2019
This report reads: The 18-year revenue performance is basically in line with expectations, Q4 costs and exchange rate pressures have been reduced, and gross margins have improved. The external environment has improved significantly in 2019, and the company’s performance is expected to improve steadily and increase its holdings. Investment Highlights: Increase earnings forecast and target price to increase holdings.We believe the company’s revenue and earnings growth rate is expected to improve quarter by quarter under the strong recovery of consumer momentum in the home appliance industry.Increase EPS forecast for 2019-2020 to 3.64/4.23 yuan (original 3.51/4.(RMB 04, + 4% / + 5%), with a new forecast for 2021 4.52 yuan.We believe the company’s reasonable estimate should be improved compared with 2017 under the new trend of improving industry fundamentals and liquidity improvement, and raise the target price to 76.44 yuan (originally 42.12 yuan, + 81%), corresponding to the 21xPE estimate for 2019. 18-year income is in line with expectations.The company’s 18-year revenue was 2618.200 million (+8.2%), net profit attributable to mother 202.300 million (+17.1%), net of non-attributed net profit 200.600 million (+28.5%), gross margin of 27.5% (+2.5pct), net interest rate 8.3% (+0.6pct)南京夜网; Q4 single quarter revenue 544.200 million (+0.5%), net profit attributable to mother 23.300 million (+2.0%). Q4 single quarter growth rate is a stage low.In 18H2, domestic demand was obviously under pressure. The KUKA business stayed dragging down earnings reports, and revenue growth and profitability increased significantly.In terms of business lines, Q4 of air-conditioning washing machines improved month-on-month, kitchen appliances continued to be under pressure, KUKA revenue increased by 10%, and profitability could affect penetration.Q4 gross profit margin increased by 4.7pct to 28.6%, but the net margin increased by only 0.1pct.In 18Q4, the internal and external pressures of the company were concentrated, forming a periodical low, and 2019 will improve trend. The external environment has improved significantly in 2019, and the company’s performance is expected to improve steadily.We believe that the 19 year home appliance industry will show a strong turnaround under the triple benefits of consumer confidence + real estate + consumption policies. Midea has excellent market acumen and execution ability and will become one of the main beneficiaries of this new upward cycle.The company’s 19Q1 growth rate is expected to show a trend inflection point, and Q2-Q4 growth rate will increase quarter by quarter. Core risk: KUKA business further drags down performance.
Month: March 2020
Donghua Software (002065)： Goodwill impairment releases potential risks Core profit growth basically meets market expectations
Donghua Software (002065): Goodwill impairment releases potential risks Core profit growth basically meets market expectations
The company warns of the risk of goodwill impairment. It is expected that the profit will fall by 26% -13%. The company issued a 2019 annual performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit of the mother will be 6 in 2019.
0-7.
0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 26% -13%.
The company judges that there may be impairment of relevant goodwill arising from the acquisition of assets, and it is expected to make provision for impairment of goodwill3.
0-4.
0 million.
The company’s performance forecast is slightly lower than our 2019 profit forecast (7.
5.3 billion), significantly lower than the consensus expectation of the Wonder Market (10.
1.6 billion); after adding back the provision for impairment of goodwill, it basically met market consensus expectations.
After paying attention to the points and adding back the provision for impairment of goodwill, the expected profit is 失败:重查 expected9.
0-11.
0 million.
After the addition, the company expects that the net profit in 2019 will increase by 14% -39% per year, which is gradually increasing.
Looking back, we are optimistic about the growth prospects of the company’s software integration business in the medical, smart city and other sectors, and it is expected to become the gradual implementation of the new listing and spin-off regulations. Each business sector can obtain better incentives through the spin-off and revitalize the company’s existing assets.
Work with Huawei to create a new chapter in development.
The company continues to strengthen cooperation with Huawei in multiple business fields such as medical care, finance, and public utilities. In October 2019, Donghua and Huawei jointly released a user portrait system and intelligent data 合肥夜网 connection platform based on Kunpeng Financial’s big data solution.
The company is one of the eight system integration manufacturers with super-level qualifications in the country. We believe that the company can deeply participate in and benefit from the wave of domestic information technology innovation.
The prosperity of medical IT policy is sustainable, and the medical sector continues to be beautiful.
Favorable policies in the medical IT field have continued since 2018.Donghua Medical, a subsidiary of the company, is a high-end customer with more than 500 tertiary hospitals, and has continued to harvest large-scale orders from Nanfang Hospital, Zhumadian Central Hospital, and Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University since 2019.We believe that the high prosperity of the industry is sustainable.
Estimates and recommendations take into account the company’s provision for impairment of goodwill3.
0-4.
0 million, we lowered our net profit for 2019 by 18.
8% to 6.
2.5 billion; Considering the favorable policies and the company’s performance after accumulating goodwill impairment provisions basically meet market expectations, we slightly increase the net profit in 20203.
9% to 9.
04 ppm, dated 2121 revenue forecast 121.
72 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.
0%; net profit forecast 10.
41 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.
2%; Maintain “Outperform” rating and raise target price by 37.
5% to 11 yuan, mainly due to switching to 2020 evaluation.
Our target price is based on 38 2020 price-earnings ratio, corresponding to 55/33 times the 2019/21 price-earnings ratio, which is 1 compared with the year before.
6% upside.
The current contradiction corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 54 in 2019/20.
4/37.
6 times.
Risks Goodwill impairment risks, policy benefits exceed expectations, and R & D expenses exceed expectations.
Long Mang Baili (002601)： Yunnan Xinli comprehensively resumes production of titanium industry expansion project to help growth
Long Mang Baili (002601): Yunnan Xinli comprehensively resumes production of titanium industry expansion project to help growth
Recent situation of the company On January 9, we participated in the resumption of the completion of Xinli Titanium Industry of Longman Baili Antiques and the intensive start-up ceremony of major projects in the titanium industry, and exchanged views with the company. Yunnan Xinli ushered in a full-scale resumption of production, and the titanium dioxide and sponge titanium expansion projects started construction.Since the acquisition of Xinli Titanium by Longman Baili in May 2019, the 8-crystal high-titanium slag production line and 1 sponge sponge titanium production line have been successfully resumed in 180 seconds, and the 6 chloride titanium dioxide production line has been improved.At the closing stage, the company expects to resume production by the end of January 2020.At the same time, Xinli Titanium Industry will start the construction of 16 targets / year high titanium slag, 20 targets / year chlorinated titanium dioxide and 3 indicators / sponge titanium project. The company is expected to invest a total of USD 5 billion.LiTitanium will become the world’s largest sponge titanium production base and the nation’s important chloride titanium dioxide production base. 20 Titanium Chloride Titanium Dioxide started to increase steadily, and the titanium chloride slag project progressed smoothly.At present, the first phase 10 of the company’s second-stage chlorinated titanium dioxide reached the production line and the production increased to 6000 tons / month. The second 10-line production line is in the commissioning stage. We expect that the gradual release of the second-phase chlorinated titanium dioxide capacity will helpCompany performance growth.50 Initial Panxi Titanium Concentrate Upgrading and Transformation Construction 30 Progressive construction of the titanium chloride slag project is progressing smoothly. The company is expected to start production at the end of 2020 and it is expected to reach production in 2021. We expect that the cost of titanium chloride titanium dioxide raw materials will be reduced after the project is put into operationEnhance the competition of chlorinated titanium dioxide. Demand for titanium dioxide is expected to improve, and the company’s market share will continue to increase.The real estate team of CICC is expected to increase the real physical completed area of houses across the country by 9% by 2020, which will increase domestic demand for titanium dioxide; exports of titanium dioxide will continue to improve, and monthly exports of titanium dioxide will increase by 6 on January 11, 2019.9% to 90%.3 Initially, we expect that the export volume 南京夜网 of titanium dioxide will exceed 100 inches by 2020.On the supply side, according to our statistics, in 2020, the titanium dioxide industry will mainly increase its output and concentrate on leading enterprises. We expect that the market share and speaking power of leading enterprises will be further enhanced. It is recommended to keep the profit forecast for 2019 unchanged. Taking into account the resumption of production of Xinli Titanium Industry and chloride titanium dioxide, the profit forecast for 2020 is raised by 3% to 32 trillion. The profit forecast for 2021 is 3.7 billion yuan.At present, the company is in line with the corresponding P / E ratio of 2020/21.8/9.4x. Considering the evaluation switch and better company growth, we raise our target price by 17.6% to 20 yuan, corresponding to 17% growth space and 13 / 11x P / E ratio in 2020/21, maintain outperform industry rating. Risks Titanium dioxide prices have dropped, and chlorinated titanium dioxide has started operations lower than expected.
Yongxing Materials (002756)： Consolidated mining rights report layout layout of lithium carbonate complete industry chain
Yongxing Materials (002756): Consolidated mining rights report layout layout of lithium carbonate complete industry chain
The event company announced that its holding subsidiaries Yongxing New Energy, Huaqiao Yongtuo, Yichun Mining and Huaqiao Mining special issue “Agreement on Yifeng County Huaqiao Yongtuo Mining Co., Ltd.’s equity change and investment increase”.
After the equity change and increased investment, Huaqiao Mining and the porcelain stone mining rights it holds in Baishi Mining Area will be within the scope of the company’s consolidated statement.
The opinion guarantees the upstream raw materials of the lithium carbonate project and opens the last link of the industrial chain.
The forthcoming Huaqiao Mining and the porcelain mining rights held in Baishi Mining Area will be within the scope of the company’s consolidated statement. In the future, it will effectively guarantee the company’s upstream raw materials for the battery-level lithium carbonate project that has been put into trial operation.
According to the announcement, as of April 2019, the Huashan 天津夜网 porcelain stone ore body gradually identified the controlled intrinsic economic resources (332) + the triggered intrinsic economic resources (333) and the amount of ore was 4507 variables, of which 332The amount of ore is 3099 additives, and the amount of 333 types of ore is 1408 additives.
At this point, the company has completed the layout of the complete new energy lithium battery industry chain from the mining of mineral resources to the production of brine to the production of battery-grade lithium carbonate, and the cost advantage will change.
Lithium carbonate project is expected to contribute to profit, and it is estimated that there is room for improvement.
The company’s first-phase annual production of 1 entered the battery-grade lithium carbonate project has been put into production. Considering the company’s research and development technology strength and cost advantages brought by its own minerals, the project’s future profitability is expected, and it is expected to contribute profits in 2020.
Since 2017, the company has been involved in the dual main business of lithium battery, and subject to the impact of the outlook on the lithium carbonate industry, the company is expected to continue to be under pressure.
We believe that once the project achieves profitability, the suppression of estimation factors is expected to be eliminated, and the bottom of the price of lithium carbonate will be stabilized, which will contribute to the profitability elasticity in the future, and it is estimated that there is room for improvement.
The leading segments are growing steadily, with low resistance and high dividends, and the main business has an expected margin of safety.
The downstream of the company faces high-end manufacturing industries such as petrochemical, aerospace, marine, military, nuclear power, etc., with high barriers and high added value, and the second largest domestic market share in the field of stainless steel rods and wires.
At the same time, the company has excellent management, with a debt ratio of 25% and an ROE of 10%. The net profit in the five years of listing has doubled.
At the same time, the last two years have continued to have high dividends, with an average yield of 5.
.
7%.
Earnings forecast and investment recommendations The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent of 4, respectively, in 2019-2021.
3.7 billion, 5.
2.1 billion, 6.
6.9 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 13.
4 times, 11.
3 times, 8.
8 times.
Maintain target price of 21.
9 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risks suggest that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fall; there is a downside risk to macro demand.
Nanwei Medical (688029)： Deeply cultivating endoscopic diagnosis and treatment equipment to advance tumor ablation and EOCT multi-platform
Nanwei Medical (688029): Deeply cultivating endoscopic diagnosis and treatment equipment to advance tumor ablation and EOCT multi-platform
Leader in the field of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment, and three major technology platforms with concentric and diverse layout. Since its establishment, the company has been deeply involved in the field of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment equipment, and has gradually formed six product lines, a variety of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment product lines; through extension mergers and acquisitions + internalInnovate, attack the field of tumor ablation and EOCT technology platform, and form three major technology platforms of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment, tumor ablation and EOCT around the minimally invasive field.
The company is in a period of rapid growth. From 2016 to 2018, the company’s main product sales increased rapidly, with total operating income from 20164.
100 million increase to September 2018.
About 200 million, the compound annual growth rate is close to 50%.
The scope of the country’s internal mirror diagnosis and treatment market is broad, supporting the company’s growth. The soil is fertile and the digestive system diseases are gradually increasing. Gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and other digestive system cancers rank among the leading rates of various types of cancer. The prevalence of gallstone disease, cholecystitis and pneumoniaIt is on the rise, pushing up the basic needs of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment as an effective means for early screening and diagnosis of digestive diseases; the progress rate of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment in our country has significantly exceeded the gradual expansion, and the scope of the endoscopic diagnosis and treatment market is broad, supporting the company’s fertile soil.
The company’s endoscopic diagnostic equipment product line contributed the company’s main subsidiary revenue, which accounted for 88.
6% is also the main source of short-term growth; from 2016 to 2018, the operating income of the endoscopic diagnostic and treatment device product line increased from 3.
2.1 billion to 8.
1.1 billion, with an average annual or compound growth rate of about 60%. The sales of the three major product lines of hemostasis and closure, biopsy and expansion account for about 84.
5%.
Tumor ablation and EOCT are expected to become the company’s new growth point. The company’s microwave ablation products are mainly used for liver cancer treatment. Cancer is a country with a high incidence of liver cancer. Liver cancer ranked fourth in the incidence of cancer in 2014, and ranked second in the death rate., Tumor ablation is a primary tumor that cannot be performed, especially liver parenchymal tumors, or patients who are not suitable for open surgery due to age / physical 北京养生会所 reasons.
The company’s tumor ablation products account for nearly 10% of the domestic thermal ablation market.
ECOT is an innovative product of the company’s strategic layout with cutting-edge technology standards, pioneering a brand-new “non-invasive optical biopsy” technology. At the end of 2016, it was approved by the US FDA.The green channel for the approval of innovative medical devices by the FDA is expected to become an important growth point for the company’s performance in the future.
Earnings forecasts and estimates temporarily do not take into account the sales revenue and profit contribution of the subsequent listing of EOCT products. We forecast that the company’s revenue scale will be 12 in 2019-2021.
.
16/15.
73/20.
11 trillion, respectively increased by 31.
9% / 29.
4% / 27.
8%; net profit attributable to mothers is 2.
75/3.
62/4.
7.2 billion, an increase of 43 in ten years.
0% / 31.
5% / 30.
4%; total issued share capital1.
3.3 billion shares are the reference share capital, and the company’s full diluted earnings (EPS) will be 2 in 2019-2021.
07/2.
72/3.
55 yuan.
The company belongs to the medical device fine molecule industry, and the current medical device (SW) industry as a whole is PE (TTM) 42.
6 times (as of July 17), most of the company’s products are consumable-type devices, we choose A-share comparable companies Dabo Medical, Jianfan Bio and Kellett for reference.
Based on the industry’s overall and comparable company estimates, considering that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will increase at a compound annual growth rate of more than 30% in the next three years, a 40-time PE estimate for 2019 is given, with a target price of 82.
8 yuan.
Risks indicate that the competition in the industry is intensifying, and the development of new products such as EOCT is less than expected, and the risk of product price reductions.
Torch Electronics (603678)： The growth of military electronics has significantly reduced the losses of new materials many times
Torch Electronics (603678): The growth of military electronics has significantly reduced the losses of new materials many times
The net profit attributable to mothers increased by 21 in 19H1.
22%, the growth in the first half of the performance is in line with expectations The company released the 2019 semi-annual report, the company’s revenue in 2019H110.
61 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.
7%, net profit attributable to mother is 2.
13 ppm, an increase of 21 per year.
22%, performance 杭州桑拿 growth in line with expectations.
As the core supplier of military MLCC, the company is actively deploying the two-way capacitor and special ceramic materials business, and its future performance will continue to increase.
We expect the company’s EPS to be zero in 2019-2021.
88/1.
11/1.
35 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Military electronics business revenues increase by 49 per year.
6%, self-produced components business continued to improve 2019H1 company’s self-produced business to achieve sales revenue3.
0.94 million yuan, of which sales of military products2.
710,000 yuan, an increase of 49.
59%; self-produced sales revenue of civilian products1.
23 ppm, an increase of 19 per year.
25%.
Guangzhou Tianji 2019H1 acquired in April 2018 achieved revenue of 3165.
10,000 yuan, net profit 1214.
60,000 yuan, the first half of the net profit is close to the 2018 consolidated profit.
2019H1 company’s tungsten capacitor business achieved sales revenue of 2385.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.
45%, gross margin 50.
01%, an increase of 4 a year.
49pct, sales and profits of tungsten capacitors have further increased.
We believe that after the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan and the gradual elimination of the effects of the military reform, the military electronics business is expected to usher in a period of sustained high-speed growth.
The new materials business has reduced losses by nearly half, and it is expected to significantly increase the company’s competitiveness and profitability in the future.
580,000 yuan, an increase of 19 every year.
77%, the three companies engaged in new materials business Liya New Materials, Liya Tetao, Liya Chemical replaced 1.34 million yuan, 1.65 million yuan, 4.84 million yuan, respectively, reducing losses 626 times in total.
270,000 yuan.
The company started to deploy the industrialization of CASAS-300 materials in 2014, and started construction of the industrialization project of CASAS-300 in 2016, and realized profitability in 2018. The business is currently progressing smoothly.
This material is expensive. According to the company’s announced price of about 50,000 to 6 million / kg, the continuous growth of downstream demand in the future and the gradual release of production capacity will significantly enhance the company’s competitiveness and profitability.
The decline in the gross profit margin of the trading business, which is expected to achieve revenue in 2019H1’s trading business6.
62 ppm, an increase of 0 per year.
81%, gross profit margin 18.
15% twice a year.
42 points.In 2018, the company’s trade sector business was affected by the shortage of supplementary agent lines and the ceramic capacitor market. The gross profit margin of trading products increased. In 2019, the shortage of ceramic capacitors eased. The product price and gross profit margin generally began to decrease. We believe that the company’s agencyThe business gross margin growth rate is still within 深圳桑拿网 expectations.
Ceramic capacitors and ceramics new materials high-quality civilian enterprises, maintain the “buy” rating company in the first half of the new material business substantially reduced losses, military electronics business grew significantly, we believe that the transition to new materials and military electronics business usher in a high growth period, 2020The performance of -2021 is expected to continue to grow at a high speed. Therefore, the profit forecast for 2020-2021 is raised. It is estimated that Torch Electronics’ operating income for 2019-2021 will be 24.
78/29.
53/34.
7.9 billion (number from 19-21 years ago 24.
78/28.
89/33.
5.7 billion), net profit attributable to mothers was 4.
00/5.
03/6.
1.3 billion (19-21 years ago) 4.
01/4.
65/5.
33 ppm), the corresponding EPS is 0.
88/1.
11/1.
35 yuan.
Comparable companies’ average P / E in 2019 is estimated to be 34.
42, we give Torch Electronics 34-34 in 2019.
5x P / E estimates with a target price range of 30.
01-30.
46 yuan / share.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: Expenditure on military spending and military-civilian integration policies are expected; the promotion of new materials fails to meet expectations.
US researchers： loneliness threatens public health or even obesity
US researchers: loneliness threatens public health or even obesity
Researchers at Brigham Young University released a report at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association, saying that loneliness and social isolation may be more harmful to public health than obesity, and the impact is still increasing. Psychology 苏州夜网论坛 professor Juliana Holt-Leinstead led the research team to collect, collate, and analyze many previous related studies, and presented two sets of data in the report.The first set of data is based on 148 studies involving 300,000 subjects, showing that more social interaction is related to a 50% reduction in the risk of early death.The second set of data is based on 70 studies involving more than 3.4 million people. The results show that social isolation, loneliness, or living alone have a significant impact on premature death, with an impact greater than or equal to obesity. US Daily Science website quoted Holt-Leinstead as saying that there is sufficient evidence that social isolation and loneliness significantly increase the risk of premature death. As the aging population increases, the impact of loneliness on public health will only increaseIn fact, many countries in the world are facing lonely epidemics. The latest US census results show that more than a quarter of the US population lives alone, and more than half are unmarried or divorced.Compared with the results of the previous census, the marriage rate and the number of children per household have decreased.Holt-Leinstead said: These trends show that Americans are reducing social interaction and becoming more lonely.(Huang Min)[Xinhua News Agency Microblog]Original title: American researchers: loneliness harms public health or even obesity
Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review： Continued R & D + Industry Integration to Survive the Jedi
Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Continued R & D + Industry Integration to Survive the Jedi
Event: The company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report, and the company achieved revenue of 22 in 2018.
4.6 billion, an increase of 10 in ten years.
65%, net profit 4.
05 ppm, an increase of ten years.
91%; revenue in the first quarter of 20194.
56 ppm, a decrease of 15 per year.
73%, with a net profit of 3967.
510,000 yuan, down 55 every year.
58%.
The company predicts that the decline in the proportion of net profit in the first half of 2019 may exceed 50%.
Opinion: Cycles that cannot be budgeted, and memory chip price reductions are a drag on performance.
Affected by factors such as weak demand and lower memory chip prices, the company’s revenue growth in 2018 has gradually declined, with Q1-Q4 being 19 respectively.
71%, 16.
18%, 6.
26%, 2.
35%; net profit growth rate changed from positive to negative, Q1-Q4 were 28.
55%, 32.
54%, -17.
33%, -35.
01%.
2019Q1 revenue for ten years -15.
73%, net profit for ten years -55.
58%.
The company predicts that the decline in the proportion of net profit in the first half of 2019 may exceed 50%, including: 1.
In order to maintain market competitiveness, the company continues to increase R & D investment by developing new products; 2.
2. Add extra incentives to increase the cost; 3.
The rate of cost decline is slower than the rate of price decline, resulting in a decline in gross profit margin; 4.
4. Trade frictions lead to at least a possible reduction in income and a decrease in profits; 5.
The fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate affects the company’s exchange losses.
Taiwan Wanghong’s 2019Q1 revenue, which is similar to the company’s business, continues to be -33%, and net profit is -92%. The gross profit margin has gradually decreased by 17pct.
Continue to increase investment 重庆耍耍网 in research and development, maintaining a high gross profit margin.
The company invested in R & D in 2018 2.
3 billion, an annual increase of 37.
67%; R & D investment in the first quarter of 2019 was 0.
64 ppm, an increase of 62 in ten years.
43%.
The company’s gross profit margin for 2019Q1 was 38.
48%, ten years +0.24pct, ring than +0.
76 points.
Through continuous high R & D investment, the company continuously carries out technological upgrades and new product development, and enriches the company’s product line to maintain a high level of gross profit.
The company’s full range of GD25 SPI NOR flash memory products has completed AEC-Q100 certification, and is currently the only nationwide general automotive flash memory product. The MCU product portfolio has been further expanded, and new products 南宁桑拿 have been developed for high performance, miniaturization, and IoT applications.
In terms of memory chips, the company launched the smallest package in developing countries for the Internet of Things, wearables and consumer products1.
5 mm x 1.
5mm USON8 low-power wide-voltage product line; launched the first domestic 8-channel SPI product that complies with JEDEC specifications for applications with high performance requirements; introduced 256Mb, 512Mb, etc.Products; and has certified the entire GD25 series according to the AEC-Q100 standard, and is currently the only nationally-produced car flash memory product.
In addition, the company’s high-reliability 38nm SLC process products have been in mass production.
In terms of MCUs, the company develops multiple new products for advanced, specific and IoT applications, further expanding the MCU product portfolio.
Continue to promote industrial integration and expand strategic layout.
The company continued to promote the 12-inch micron wafer research and development project with the Hefei Production and Investment Cooperative, and agreed to invest 300 million yuan in convertible debt.
The company’s proposed acquisition of Siliwei has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and it is actively deploying human-computer interaction technology in the field of Internet of Things.
The company and Rambus, a well-known chip designer in the United States, have strategically cooperated to develop the commercialization of RRAM technology, further expanding the layout of the new storage market.
Earnings forecasts and investment-rated memory chips have continued to reduce prices since the beginning of 2018. The company predicts that the decline in the proportion of net profit in the first half of 2019 may exceed 50%.
Considering the easing of Sino-U.S. Trade frictions and the gradual recovery of downstream demand and the gradual destocking of the industry, we expect the company’s memory chip prices to reach 2019 and stabilize in the second half of the year. At the same time, taking into account the company’s continuous technology upgrades and the development of new products, under 2019The company’s profitability seeks improvement in one and a half years.
Regardless of the consolidation, we lower the company’s EPS forecasts for 2019 and 2020 to 1.
37, 1.
82 (last time was 3.
27, 4.
64 yuan), plus EPS forecast for 2021 is 2.
35 yuan, the current budget compared to PE is 60, 46, 35 times, downgrade the company rating to “overweight” level.
Risk warning: the risk of failure to acquire Sili Micro, the risk of continued price reduction of memory chips, and the development of new products is less than expected.
Wanrun Co. (002643) Company Comments： Interim Report Performance Steady Growth Due to Increased Internal Demand and Exchange Gains
Wanrun Co. (002643) Company Comments: Interim Report Performance Steady Growth Due to Increased Internal Demand and Exchange Gains
The steady growth of the interim report results is in line with expectations. The company issued a 2019 interim report forecast, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.
9.3 billion -2.
51 ppm, a year-on-year growth of 0-30%, performance growth in line with market expectations.
Reasons for performance growth: downstream demand growth, especially the increase in internal environmental protection material demand; RMB depreciation in the second quarter of 2019, the company’s exports accounted for nearly 80%, and the US dollar-based pricing, RMB depreciation brings considerable exchange gains, we expectForeign exchange earnings in the second quarter exceeded 10 million yuan.
The issuance of convertible bonds was terminated, but the built-in environmental protection materials project continued to advance in an orderly manner. Focusing on convertible bonds, it has been shown that the capital market environment has changed in order to fully protect the interests of shareholders, especially small and medium shareholders. The company comprehensively considers capital market conditions and financing opportunitiesFactors, decided to terminate the issuance of convertible bonds and withdraw the application documents.
We believe that the current price corresponds to the company’s 2019 PE estimate of only 17 times. At this time, the issuance of convertible bonds and excessive dilution of the company’s EPS after subsequent conversions will result in the company’s termination of the issue of convertible bonds in accordance with shareholders’ equity.
In addition, the termination of the issuance of convertible bonds will not affect the implementation of the company’s internal environmental protection material projects. The company will continue to promote the involvement of environmental protection material projects through self-raised funds.
The implementation of National VI for diesel vehicles, the growth of internal demand is worth looking forward to the implementation of National VI for diesel 杭州夜生活网 vehicles will significantly increase the demand for internal environmentally friendly materials. After full implementation in 2021, it is expected that the annual domestic demand will increase by more than one.
Backed by Johnson Matthey, the company is expected to fully benefit from the industry’s growth dividend.
In addition, the increase in diesel emission standards in emerging countries such as India and Brazil will also drive demand.
The company’s existing polycarbonate production capacity is 3350 tons, 2,500 tons are under construction, and it will continue to expand production by 7,000 tons.
With the successive construction and production of a series of environmentally-friendly materials projects, the company will become a high-end series of environmentally-friendly materials producers in the world in terms of technology and sales.
The OLED business enters the period of accelerated release of performance. The OLED business maintains a leading position in China. Its nine-mesh chemical is a leading supplier of domestic intermediates and monomers. In March Optoelectronics, there is a volume of finished materials certification for downstream customers.Earnings are rising rapidly and profitability is expected.
We believe that the OLED business is one of the most important businesses the company reserves after the power station business.
The company’s 2019Q1 minority shareholders ‘profit and loss was 563 million. Since March Optoelectronics is still in the heavy volume verification stage, the minority shareholders’ profit and loss are mainly contributed by Jiumu Chemical. Therefore, we believe that Jiumu Chemical’s 2019Q1 net profit has exceeded 10 million and the net profit marginImproved and continue to improve (Jinmu Chemical’s revenue in 20182.
360,000 yuan, net profit margin 23.19 million yuan, net profit margin 9.
8%).
The chemical growth in September exceeded expectations, and the volume of finished photovoltaic materials in the following three months, the company’s OLED business will enter a period of accelerated performance release.
Earnings forecast and investment advice: We expect the company’s net profit attributable to its parent to be 5 in 2019-2020.
2/6.
400 million, the current price corresponds to 17 times PE in 2019, maintain BUY rating.
Risk warning: demand for environmentally friendly materials exceeds expectations, growth of OLED materials exceeds expectations, and liquid crystal demand exceeds expectations.
Xinyangfeng (000902)： an underrated leader in agricultural consumer goods!
Xinyangfeng (000902): an underrated leader in agricultural consumer goods!
Xinyangfeng’s finances: stable profitable growth, abundant cash flow, healthy assets and liabilities.
1) Growth: After removing the influence of adverse policy factors such as the government’s increasing levy on the compound fertilizer industry in 2016, the company has maintained a revenue growth of about 10% and a profit growth of about 20% for the past six years.
From the perspective of sales volume, since 2012, the company’s sales volume has continued to increase until the downturn in the industry since 2016, with an average growth rate of three years still reaching 8.
.
25%.
2) Profitability: The company’s average ROE has been as high as 16% since 2014; the company’s net interest rate has averaged 8 in the three years and one quarter since 2016.
46%, higher than Kim Jong Tai (4.
38%), Stanley (4.
77%) and Yuntu Holdings (1.
重庆耍耍网
99%).
3) Cash flow and liabilities: The net cash flow generated by the company’s operating activities is always positive, and the total net cash flow from operating activities during the five-year period from 2014 to 2018 is as high as 31.
4.7 billion, with an annual average of 6.
300 million; due to long-term high profit and high net operating cash inflow, the company’s debt ratio has been repeated, and the asset-liability ratio in the first quarter of 2019 was only 23.
01%.
Core competitiveness: Why does the company have such excellent financial performance?
Outstanding cost advantage + channel marketing effort!
1) Cost advantage is outstanding.
The company has a cost advantage of about 200 yuan / ton because of: 1) a long industrial chain and upstream monoammonium phosphate production capacity; 2) it has the right to import potash fertilizer and can import potash fertilizer at a low price; 3) the location is reasonable and it hasConvenient transportation such as waterways and railway lines, reducing logistics costs; 4) Having advanced and perfect production technology and supporting facilities, further reducing the company’s costs.
2) Marketing channels are working hard to help sales volume and market share continue to increase.
Relying on cost advantages, the company can give more incentives to dealers and more cost-effective products to end consumers, so that it can continue to increase sales during a downturn in the market environment. In recent years, the company has continuously obtained high-quality channelsResources. In 2018, the number of the company’s first-level dealers reached 4,800, an increase of 300 a year, which constitutes an important factor for the company’s sales growth and continuous increase in market share, and has contributed to the excellent sales flexibility when the industry’s prosperity returned.
3) Product upgrades, the company’s product structure continues to be optimized.
The company has made great efforts in research and development, products, brands, channels, and services to vigorously develop new compound fertilizers.
The company’s new compound fertilizer sales increased rapidly, and the proportion of high-profit new fertilizer continued to increase, which will help the company’s overall gross profit and net profit rate continue to rise.
The industry competition pattern has improved, and the “triphosphate control” and the recovery of agricultural product prices have helped the company’s performance growth!
1) In 2019, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the “Implementation Plan for the Investigation and Rectification of the” Three Phosphorus “on the Yangtze River,” which strengthened the “Three Phosphorus” special investigation and rectification action involving phosphate mines, phosphate fertilizers, and phosphorus-containing pesticide manufacturing, including phosphate chemical enterprises and phosphogypsum depotIt is expected that the supply of monoammonium phosphate will shrink significantly, the advantages of core resources will be further highlighted, and the company’s operating moat will be consolidated, and the company’s cost advantage will be more prominent!
2) The domestic agricultural product price is expected to recover at the bottom, and the rise of corn is obvious, which will help the bottom of the compound fertilizer industry to recover.
“Buy” rating: It is expected that the company’s revenue will be 110-2019.
32/120.
48/135.
2.7 billion, an increase of 9.
98% / 9.
21% / 12.
27%, net profit attributable to mother is 9.
90/11.
89/14.
27 ppm, the corresponding EPS is 0.
76/0.
91/1.
09 yuan, an increase of 20 per year.
93% / 20.
11% / 20.
01%. Considering the stable growth of the company’s performance and the moat of the performance, we give the company 20 times PE, and the target price for the 2019 performance is 15.
2 yuan.
Risk reminders: 1. Fluctuations in prices of agricultural products and raw materials; 2. Limitations of cost estimation; 3. Intensified competition.